Dr. Travis Porco is a biostatistician and researcher whose work centers on the mathematical analysis of disease transmission. His collaborations span trachoma elimination in Ethiopia, the seasonality of keratitis in South India, voriconazole treatment of fungal corneal ulcers, ciliary neurotrophic growth factor for retinal degenerative diseases, pediatric enucleation, and the cost-effectiveness of endophthalmitis prevention with fourth-generation fluoroquinolones.
Areas of Expertise
- Biostatistics and ophthalmic epidemiology
- Mathematical modeling of disease transmission
- Infectious eye disease — trachoma and keratitis
- Clinical-trial design and cost-effectiveness analysis
Education
- University of California, Berkeley, PhD, Biophysics (Advisor: Wayne Getz)
- University of California, Berkeley, MPH, Biostatistics
- University of California, San Francisco, Postdoctoral Scholar
- University of California, San Francisco, Fellow, Traineeship in AIDS Prevention Studies
Dr. Travis Porco's research applies mathematical and statistical modeling to understand how infectious diseases spread and how best to control them. Working closely with the Lietman group at Proctor and international partners such as the Partnership for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma (PI: Sheila West, Johns Hopkins), the lab has estimated the efficacy of mass azithromycin distribution for eliminating trachoma infection.
This includes multi-year analyses of transmission dynamics in Tanzania, which found that transmission did not appear to intensify over time — helping to ease concerns that a loss of immunity following successful control could undermine future elimination efforts.
Research Themes
- Trachoma elimination: modeling transmission dynamics and the impact of mass antibiotic distribution
- Antibiotic resistance: game-theoretic models of drug resistance — including macrolide-resistant pneumococcus arising from trachoma programs
- Tuberculosis: transmission modeling, including historical and drug-resistant epidemics
- Measles: simulation of contact investigation and the cost-effectiveness of interventions across vaccine-coverage levels
- Methods: game-theoretic models of cooperation during contact investigations, and educational modeling tools for teaching epidemiology
Lab Members
Selected Publications
- Aragie S, et al. Water, sanitation, and hygiene for control of trachoma in Ethiopia (WUHA): a cluster-randomised trial. Lancet Global Health. 2022;10(1):e87–e95.
- Arzika AM, et al. Biannual mass azithromycin distributions and malaria parasitemia in pre-school children in Niger (MORDOR). PLoS Medicine. 2019;16(6):e1002835.
- Blower SM, McLean AR, Porco TC, et al. The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics. Nature Medicine. 1995;1(8):815–821.
- Blower SM, Porco TC, Darby G. Predicting and preventing the emergence of antiviral drug resistance in HSV-2. Nature Medicine. 1998;4(6):673–678.
- Banerjee R, Schecter GF, Flood J, Porco TC. Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis: new strains, new challenges. Expert Review of Anti-infective Therapy. 2008;6(5):713–724.
- Blumberg S, Enanoria WT, Lloyd-Smith JO, Lietman TM, Porco TC. Identifying postelimination trends for the introduction and transmissibility of measles in the United States. American Journal of Epidemiology. 2014;179(11):1375–1382.
- Bellan SE, et al. Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2015;15(6):703–710.
- Acharya NR, et al. Stopping of adalimumab in juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis (ADJUST): a randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2025;405(10475):303–313.
- Acharya NR, et al. Outcomes in Patients With Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada Disease From the FAST Uveitis Trial. American Journal of Ophthalmology. 2024;267:100–111.